Race Time Predictors – Can they be Trusted?

Good morning, everyone! I’m enjoying a quiet Friday, which has been a welcomed change from a hectic Monday through Thursday. I’m not running today, so of course that leads to thinking and especially thinking about running. I’m picking up a fresh new pair of running shoes today, so there’s that. I ordered a pair of Saucony Kinvara 8s and I plan to use them on race day in Richmond. I haven’t run in Kinvaras for a very long time, but I’ve read and heard great things about them (link is to running shoes guru, who I find to provide the best shoe reviews).

I’ve been thinking about my training so far (currently in week 4, as you may know if you pay attention to my ramblings) and how it’s gone. My training plan is easy on the volume but ultra-aggressive on the paces. I based it on my ability to run a 40:30 10k. All of the track/tempo/long run paces are based on that.

I’ve had some trouble holding down some of the paces so far, but I’ve stayed close. Part of that is due to the summer weather and part of it is probably that the paces are just plain tough. Part of it may also be that I occasionally like a baseball game and a beer or two the night before my tough runs. Ideally, I wouldn’t ever do that but there are only 7 days in a week.

So as I was browsing my news feed this morning and trying not to read any actual news, I stumbled into a link for a race time predictor on Runner’s World (it didn’t work, so I looked at this one instead). At first I thought there was no need for me to play around with that but then I decided it would be worth a look, just to make sure my Richmond Marathon goal is sane enough. I used 2 times from the local race series this year and this is what we got.


I’m good with that! My goal of 3:10 seems pretty realistic, based on what statistics and science say. So I guess I’m not crazy!

Any of you ever use these things? What do you think?

8 Replies to “Race Time Predictors – Can they be Trusted?”

  1. I have not used one before. But two thoughts come to mind… courses vary in difficulty, different runners are stronger in certain distances than in others. Those two factors may affect that number. : ).

    Liked by 1 person

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